Three insights from James Hoffmann that matter for coffee businesses

How growth, customers, and competition are widely misunderstood

In November last year I invited James Hoffmann to speak at an event in Dubai.

I’m sure he needs no introduction to most of you. But, just in case you’re like my wife, let me explain who he is. James Hoffmann is a former World Barista Champion and the author of The World Atlas of Coffee. More importantly, he’s huge on Youtube. 2.46 million people watch his coffee content.

His talk didn’t disappoint. And these are the three most important insights he offered.

1. Coffee industry growth headlines do not describe operating reality

The headlines are bullish. The industry is growing. Consumption is rising. New markets are opening.

These statements are all true. They are also misleading.

At the same time as this growth, producers are dealing with higher costs. Roasters are facing less predictable supply and climate pressure. Cafés are operating under rising rents, staffing challenges, and customers whose routines are less predictable than before.

Growth and pressure are happening at the same time.

Coffee business owners shouldn’t led the positive headlines lead them into a false sense of security. If you are entering coffee or expanding because the industry looks healthy, you are only seeing half the picture.

The correct way to read growth headlines is not optimism. It’s caution.

2. Coffee enthusiasts are not representative of the market

Most people working in coffee are enthusiasts. They care about beans, processing, equipment, and technique. They enjoy learning and discussing these things. It becomes easy to assume that people who care about coffee this deeply represent the average customer.

They don’t.

The average coffee customer behaves very differently. They want a drink they recognise. They want it to taste the same every time. They want to order quickly. They want coffee to fit into their day without effort.

If you design your menu, pricing, equipment choices, or service model based on what you personally enjoy, you’re building a business for people like you, not for the people paying your bills.

3. Coffee businesses are not competing with each other. They are competing with changing consumer habits.

When footfall drops or repeat visits slow, many coffee businesses look for the cause in the wrong place. A new café opened nearby. A competitor changed their offering. Someone else has better coffee.

Often, that’s not what’s happening.

Customers now move easily between coffee, matcha, iced drinks, bottled drinks, and staying home. These decisions are made quickly and are driven by convenience, timing, and routine.

It means that coffee businesses are not mainly competing on quality or brand. They are competing against alternative consumer habits.

Long story short

Coffee is growing, but it is becoming harder to run a business well. Enthusiasts dominate the conversation, but they do not represent demand. And coffee businesses are no longer competing in a closed category. They are competing inside people’s daily routines, alongside many other choices.

Long story short: stop relying on optimism, stop mistaking noise for demand, and stop solving the wrong problems.